Murphy's law statistically proven.
Aug. 18th, 2004 05:41 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
wildernesscatAs I was driving home yesterday, I was listening to the Galey Zahal. I happened to pick up the first part of an Open University lecture on Game Theory. The lecturer presented a certain game, which leads to a paradox.
Suppose you are given 2 sealed envelopes. One envelope contains some money, and the other contains double that amount. Whichever envelope you take, you've gotta keep (you take the money). You pick one at random and discover that it contains $1000. Great! But then you start thinking - what if I had picked the other one? It could contain $500, or it could contain $2000. There's a 50-50 chance of any of those happening. The expectancy of your winnings, had you picked the other envelope, is 500*.5 + 2000*.5 = $1250 ... It means, whatever you pick, theoretically you make the wrong choice.
The lecturer said he's gonna solve the paradox, but I had to get out of the car, so I don't know what the solution is...
Suppose you are given 2 sealed envelopes. One envelope contains some money, and the other contains double that amount. Whichever envelope you take, you've gotta keep (you take the money). You pick one at random and discover that it contains $1000. Great! But then you start thinking - what if I had picked the other one? It could contain $500, or it could contain $2000. There's a 50-50 chance of any of those happening. The expectancy of your winnings, had you picked the other envelope, is 500*.5 + 2000*.5 = $1250 ... It means, whatever you pick, theoretically you make the wrong choice.
The lecturer said he's gonna solve the paradox, but I had to get out of the car, so I don't know what the solution is...
